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脱钩收入补贴对粮食生产是否会产生影响,是国内外学术界长期争论的问题之一。本文使用2003~2014年全国农村固定观察点的微观数据,通过实证分析,试图回答脱钩收入补贴是否会影响小麦生产率。为使研究更细致、更严谨,本文选用EBM模型和GML指数来分析河南省小麦生产率的变化,使用较前沿的IVQR模型进行回归估计,并利用相关工具变量和2SLS模型对估计结果进行稳健性检验。研究发现:2009~2014年,脱钩收入补贴对小麦生产技术效率具有积极作用,而对小麦全要素生产率作用不大;受资金约束,小麦全要素生产率较低的农户无法扩大小麦生产规模。此外,本文较有意义的发现是,脱钩收入补贴主要通过改进小麦生产技术影响小麦生产率,而非影响小麦生产的投入产出比。这意味着,中国的脱钩收入补贴不仅符合WTO规则的要求,而且对提高农民收入、促进小麦生产技术进步具有重要意义。
Whether decoupling income subsidies will have an impact on food production is one of the long-standing debates among academics at home and abroad. In this paper, we use the micro-data of the rural fixed observation points from 2003 to 2014 and try to answer whether decoupling income subsidy will affect wheat productivity through empirical analysis. In order to make the research more detailed and rigorous, this paper selects the EBM model and GML index to analyze the changes of wheat productivity in Henan Province, and uses the more advanced IVQR model for regression estimation. The related tool variables and 2SLS model are used to test the robustness of the estimation results . The study found that from 2009 to 2014, the decoupling income subsidy has a positive effect on the technical efficiency of wheat production, but not on the total factor productivity of wheat. The farmers constrained by capital constraints and having lower total factor productivity can not expand the wheat production scale. In addition, the more significant finding of this paper is that decoupling income subsidies affect wheat productivity rather than wheat output by improving wheat production techniques. This means that China’s decoupling income subsidies not only meet the requirements of WTO rules, but also have great significance for improving farmers’ incomes and promoting technological progress in wheat production.