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目的探索新的传染病预警模型,评价预警效果。方法联合运用移动平均和线性回归模型,使用株洲市2004-2009年流行性腮腺炎发病数据,建立以周为时间序列的发病模型,计算预警阈值,制作预警控制图,并用灵敏度、特异度、及时性评价预警效果。结果该模型全部预警到株洲市2010-2011年流行性腮腺炎的暴发和流行,灵敏度100%、特异度91.67%,较监测系统早2~6周预警暴发和流行,预警阈值范围在均数加1.6~2.3倍标准差之间。结论联合移动平均和线性回归模型,具有较高的预警灵敏度、特异度和及时性,适合预警有周期性和季节性的常见传染病。
Objective To explore a new model of early warning of infectious diseases and evaluate the effect of early warning. Methods Combining the moving average and linear regression models, using the incidence data of mumps from 2004 to 2009 in Zhuzhou City, we established a model of the incidence of the week as a time series, calculated the early warning threshold, and made the early warning control chart, and used the sensitivity, specificity, Evaluation of early warning effect. Results The model was fully warned of the outbreak and epidemic of mumps in Zhuzhou City from 2010 to 2011 with sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 91.67%, which were two to six weeks earlier than the monitoring system in outbreak and epidemic warning. 1.6 ~ 2.3 times the standard deviation between. Conclusions Combined with the moving average and linear regression models, it has high sensitivity, specificity and timeliness of early warning, and is suitable for early warning of common and seasonal infectious diseases.