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鉴于我国的城乡二元结构,本文使用泰尔指数度量和刻画我国的城乡收入差距及其变化特征。同时,本文设定了非线性阈值协整模型,以揭示我国改革开放以来城乡收入差距与实际经济增长的长期非线性关系。结果表明,长期非线性阈值关系在泰尔指数为0.100(阈值)处发生机制转移:1978-1991年,我国城乡收入差距对实际增长的长期效应为正;1992-1999年,收入差距对实际增长的效应由正向负平滑转换;1999年后,我国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长产生阻滞作用,且负效应呈逐年增加趋势。
In view of the dual structure of urban and rural areas in our country, this article uses the Theil index to measure and characterize the income gap and its changing characteristics in our country. At the same time, this paper sets up a nonlinear threshold cointegration model to reveal the long-term non-linear relationship between urban-rural income disparity and real economic growth since China’s reform and opening up. The results show that the long-term non-linear threshold relationship shifts at the Theil index of 0.100 (threshold): From 1978 to 1991, the long-term effect of urban-rural income gap on real growth is positive. From 1992 to 1999, The effect is changed from positive to negative smoothly. After 1999, the income gap between urban and rural areas in our country has a block effect on the actual economic growth, and the negative effect shows a trend of increasing year by year.