风险评估是指为实施正确决策的需要,以科学的方法对不确定性事件或结果进行逻辑判断的过程[1]。中国国家标准化管理委员会发布的风险管理标准提出,风险评估包括风险识别、风险分析和风险评价[2]。自20世纪30年代风险评估在保险行业兴起,80年来已陆续发展到各行各业。近年来公共卫生事件、自 Risk assessment refers to the process of judging the uncertain events or outcomes by scientific methods in order to implement the correct decision-making [1]. The standard of risk management issued by China National Standardization Administration puts forward that risk assessment includes risk identification, risk analysis and risk assessment [2]. Since the rise of the risk assessment in the 1930s in the insurance industry, it has been gradually developed into all walks of life in the past 80 years. Public health events in recent years, since