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近几年,地方政府的债务规模逐年上涨,偿债压力和债务风险也不断加大,地方政府的财政极限究竟有多大,这是一个很难回答的问题。讨论江苏省政府的财政收支状况、债务结构和债务负担情况,在此基础上设计了政府债务管理指标,对江苏省的财政极限进行测算,为地方政府评估政府债务的承受能力和财政政策的可持续性等政策工具选择,提供了理论参考。通过研究,未来一段时间,无论是中、短期还是长期,地方政府财政收支都将面临较大压力。在江苏不同地区,财政极限的分布是有差异的,形成这种差异的原因来自于各地区经济环境、宏观经济政策、财政政策、中央与地方关系等多种因素综合影响。
In recent years, the scale of the local government’s debt has risen year by year, the debt repayment pressure and debt risks have also been increasing, and the fiscal limits of local governments are exactly how large. This is a difficult question to answer. This paper discusses the state of fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt structure and debt burden of Jiangsu provincial government. On this basis, it designs government debt management indicators to measure the fiscal limit of Jiangsu Province and evaluates the affordability and fiscal policy of local government for government debt Sustainability and other policy tools to provide a theoretical reference. Through research, the next period of time, whether it is medium, short-term or long-term, the local government revenue and expenditure will face greater pressure. There are differences in the distribution of fiscal limits in different regions of Jiangsu. The reasons for this difference are the comprehensive effects of various factors such as the economic environment in different regions, macroeconomic policies, fiscal policies, and the relationship between the central government and local governments.