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本文首先对堤防的失稳机理进行了研究,在机理分析的基础上,构造了简化的描述堤防失稳的故障树,针对求解故障树得到的堤防失稳模式,建立了相应的极限状态方程。在对各极限状态方程的随机变量的分布形态及其参数进行了分析之后,利用Monte-Carlo模拟技术计算了各失效模式下的失效概率,并最终得到了堤防总的失稳概率。本文通过一个简单的例子说明了分析和计算的步骤和方法,并对参数的不确定性和模型的结果进行了讨论。研究结果表明,基于故障树和Monte-Carlo模拟的概率定量技术对于堤防的失稳概率分析具有一定的理论和现实意义。
Based on the mechanism analysis, this paper constructs a simplified fault tree describing embankment instability, and establishes a corresponding limit state equation for the embankment failure mode obtained by solving the fault tree. After analyzing the distribution of random variables and their parameters in each limit state equation, the failure probability of each failure mode was calculated by Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and finally the total failure probability of the dike was obtained. This paper presents a simple example of the analysis and calculation steps and methods, and discusses the uncertainty of the parameters and the results of the model. The results show that the probability quantification based on fault tree and Monte-Carlo simulation has some theoretical and practical significance for the probability analysis of embankment failure.