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装备研制中风险间的相关性导致风险传导与耦合的产生,为深化对技术风险动态传导效应和非线性耦合机理的认识,探索研制技术风险管理与控制的有效思路或工具,在对风险传导与耦合进行定义的基础上,给出了装备研制中的风险传导模式,基于CFD技术对两种不同的耦合模式进行了数值模拟,结合仿真结果分析了风险的耦合机理,所提方法对于揭示装备研制技术风险传导与耦合规律有一定的促进作用,为下阶段求解关键风险因子间的关联关系奠定了良好基础。
In order to deepen the understanding of the dynamic conduction effect and nonlinear coupling mechanism of technological risk and to explore effective ideas or tools for the development of technical risk management and control in the research of risk conduction and coupling, Based on the definition of the coupling, the risk conduction mode in equipment development is given. Based on the CFD technology, two different coupling modes are numerically simulated. The coupling mechanism of risk is analyzed based on the simulation results. The conduction of technical risk and the coupling law have a certain promotion effect, laying a good foundation for solving the correlation between key risk factors in the next stage.