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Delphi法是征询有关专家意见,对专家意见进行统计处理、归纳和综合,然后进行信息反馈,促使专家意见趋于集中,从而得到协调一致的正确评价结果的一种预测方法。据有人统计所有定性预测和定量预测中,采用这种方法约占四分之一。Delphi法诞生于1986年,由美国兰德公司的数学家们发明的。他们曾预测未来五十年的科学突破、人口增长、航天技术、自动化技术、战争的可能等问题。经近二十年科技进展说明这些预测结果是准确的。80年代初,我国学者对上海新港址进行评价和选优中应用Delphi法,评价港址的设计指
The Delphi method solves the opinions of relevant experts, performs statistical processing on the opinions of experts, summarizes and synthesizes them, and then feedbacks the information so as to promote the concentration of expert opinions, so as to obtain a coordinated method of correctly evaluating the results. According to some statistics, all qualitative and quantitative projections take about a quarter of this method. The Delphi method was born in 1986 and was invented by mathematicians at the American Rand Corporation. They predicted the scientific breakthroughs in the next five decades, population growth, space technology, automation technology and the potential for war. After nearly two decades of scientific and technological progress, these forecast results are accurate. In the early 1980s, Chinese scholars applied the Delphi method to the evaluation and selection of new sites in Shanghai to evaluate the design of the Hong Kong site