一、引言设计洪水过程线方法用于水工建筑物的防洪安全设计,其适用性在文献作了探讨。本文以此为基础作进一步的补充研究。重点在于探索季节性一阶自回归模型是否适用于小流域的洪水模拟。当样本参数以适线法估计时,对设计洪水过程线的适用性。本文以四川威远河兴隆站洪水观测资料为基础,结合下游长沙坝水库的防洪设计,在假定洪水总体的条件下,通过大量的统计试验,结果表明:现行广泛应用的季节性一阶自回 I. INTRODUCTION The design flood process line method is used for flood control safety design of hydraulic structures. Its applicability is discussed in the literature. This article as a basis for further supplementary research. The emphasis is on exploring whether seasonal first-order autoregressive models are suitable for flood modeling in small watersheds. Applicability to the design flood process line when the sample parameters are estimated using the fittest method. Based on the flood observation data of Weiyuan River Xinglong Station in Sichuan Province and the flood control design of the Changba Dam downstream of the dam, a large number of statistical tests are carried out under the assumption of total flood. The results show that the seasonal first-order self-