【摘 要】
：
In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China,four experim
【机 构】
：
Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology
论文部分内容阅读
In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China,four experiments i.e. a control,an assimilation of conventional sounding and surthce data,testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of radar-derived radial wind,are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that occurred over South China,by using the GRAPES MESO model. The results show that (I) assimilating conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast,and (3)the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude. These results serve as signiticant technical reference for the study on short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the thture.
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