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目的探讨灰色数列模型GM(1,1)在预测职业病发病趋势的应用,并评价其精度等级。方法用Excel编程实现对某市2013-2015年职业人群将罹患职业病的预测。结果利用某市2006-2012年职业人群罹患职业病的数据建立灰色数列GM(1,1)模型,据此模型预测该市职业人群2013年、2014年和2015年将罹患职业病的病例分别为238、324和442例。后验差C值为0.12、小误差概率P值为1,预测精度等级为很好,符合模型的预测要求。同时显示该市的职业病病例数量上升趋势明显。结论 GM(1,1)模型可应用于职业病发病趋势预测。
Objective To explore the application of gray sequence model GM (1,1) in predicting the trend of occupational diseases and to evaluate its accuracy level. Methods Using Excel programming to predict occupational diseases in a certain occupational population in a city from 2013 to 2015. Results Based on the data of occupational diseases among occupational groups from 2006 to 2012 in a certain city, a gray series GM (1,1) model was established. According to this model, the occupational diseases in the city in 2013, 2014 and 2015 were predicted to be 238, 324 and 442 cases. The posterior difference C value is 0.12, the small error probability P value is 1, and the prediction accuracy grade is very good, which meets the prediction requirements of the model. At the same time, the number of cases of occupational diseases in the city shows an obvious upward trend. Conclusion The GM (1,1) model can be applied to predict the trend of occupational diseases.