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根据普洱、西双版纳地区6个地震观测台站在2008—2009年获取的5级以上的地震资料,利用接收函数和面波衰减系数,反演得到了研究区域的S波速度结构和Qβ结构.基于该结构模型,采用随机振动理论方法,预测了2007年宁洱MS6.4地震发生后,在震中距为10—300km范围内引起的地面运动,并借助获取的强震观测记录检验、评价了该预测结果.同时,将地面运动预测结果与利用回归衰减公式计算得到的结果进行对比,进而讨论该地震动预测方法在地面运动预测中的可行性.结果表明,该预测结果与实测结果吻合.
According to the seismic data of magnitude 5 or above obtained from 6 seismic stations in Pu’er and Xishuangbanna from 2008 to 2009, the S-wave velocity structure and Qβ structure of the studied area were obtained by using the receiver function and surface wave attenuation coefficient. The structural model predicts the ground motion caused by the epicentral distance of 10-300km after the 2007 Ning’er MS6.4 earthquake by means of stochastic vibration theory. Based on the acquired strong earthquake observation records, The result of ground motion prediction is compared with the result calculated by regression attenuation formula.At the same time, the feasibility of the ground motion prediction method in ground motion prediction is discussed.The results show that the prediction result is in good agreement with the measured data.