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为保障集装箱化危险品船载运输安全,首先通过分析集装箱化危险品船载运输典型事故案例,初步辨识事故风险因子;其次构建集装箱化危险品船载运输事故树,计算临界概率重要度得到风险致因关键因子;然后建立致因关键因子的层次重要度分析模型,分析因子的层次重要度,得出风险致因关键因子的相对重要程度。结果表明:集装箱化危险品船载运输风险致因关键因子包括包装不当、装箱不当、环境温度过高和运输途中颠簸等6项,其中包装质量缺陷、环境温度过高2项最底层敏感因子,对货物事故发生概率的影响较大。
In order to protect the shipping safety of containerized dangerous goods, firstly, the accident risk factors are identified by analyzing the typical cases of ship-borne dangerous goods containerized. Secondly, the paper builds the ship-loaded transportation accident tree of containerized dangerous goods and calculates the risk of critical probability Then the key factor is established; then the level importance degree analysis model of the key factor is established, the level importance of the factor is analyzed, and the relative importance degree of the key factor of the risk factor is obtained. The results showed that the key factors of ship-borne risk of containerized dangerous goods included improper packing, improper packing, excessive ambient temperature and bumpy transportation. Among them, there were two defects of packaging quality, high ambient temperature and two lowest sensitive factors , A greater impact on the probability of occurrence of cargo accidents.