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京津冀小麦现货价格与郑商所小麦期货价格之间的协整分析是其因果关系分析和建立小麦价格预测模型的前提。实证分析表明,在百分之五的显著性水平上,我国郑商所小麦期货价格每增加百分之一会引发京津冀地区小麦现货价格增加百分之一点零三;期货价格的价格弹性要大于现货价格的价格弹性;两者之间存在长期的均衡关系。
The cointegration analysis between the spot price of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the wheat futures price of Zheng Shang is the premise of causality analysis and the establishment of wheat price forecasting model. Empirical analysis shows that for every 5% significance level, for every 1% increase in the futures price of the Zhengshang wheat in our country, the spot price of wheat in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will increase by 1.30%. The futures price Elasticity is greater than the price elasticity of the spot price; there is a long-term equilibrium between the two.