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近年来经济学家们发现股票市场并非始终随着基本规则运动。夏勒的著作(Shiller[1981])已经指出股票价格具有惊人的变化特性;对于商业骗局及狂热投资的研究也已表明了套汇理论有可能脱离基本规则这一事实是多么的简单而普通。1987年的股市暴跌已被证明很难解释基本规则中巨大的变化。如果这种背离现象有很重要的宏观经济学含义,那么它便依据人们和公司在多大程度上对它们作出的反映。在这篇文章里我们所提出的问题是:经营者们在进行投资决定时,是否可以考虑市场的估价——即使当它与它们自己规则的估计相反。
In recent years, economists have found that the stock market does not always move with the basic rules. Salller’s book (Shiller [1981]) has pointed out that stock prices have astonishingly variable characteristics; and research into commercial scams and fanatical investment has also shown how simple and common the fact is that the theory of arbitrage is likely to diverge from the basic rules. The stock market crash of 1987 has proved difficult to explain the dramatic changes in the basic rules. If this divergence has important macroeconomic implications, then it depends on the extent to which people and firms respond to them. The question we ask in this article is whether managers can consider market valuations when making their investment decisions - even when it contradicts the rules of their own.