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目的探讨影响重症急性胰腺炎(severe acute pancreatitis,SAP)患者病死率的高危因素。方法应用Logistic回归分析法对上海中医药大学附属普陀医院1999年1月～2008年6月269例SAP患者的临床资料进行分析,建立预测重症急性胰腺炎预后的方程。结果在调查的26项指标中,高甘油三酯、一周内SIRS标准持续阳性、ARDS、MOF与SAP预后成正相关,是SAP独立的预后危险因素。结论该回归方程对判断SAP的预后、减少并发症和降低死亡率有重要的参考价值。
Objective To investigate the risk factors of mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the clinical data of 269 SAP patients in Putuo Hospital, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 1999 to June 2008, and to establish the prognosis equation of severe acute pancreatitis. Results Among the 26 indicators surveyed, high triglycerides continued to show positive SIRS within one week. ARDS and MOF were positively correlated with SAP prognosis, which was an independent prognostic risk factor for SAP. Conclusion The regression equation has an important reference value for judging the prognosis of SAP, reducing complications and reducing mortality.