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中国GDP增速下滑、全球金融市场动荡骤起都会给势见疲弱的全球经济复苏进程带来不利影响。为了量化世界经济受上述因素影响的程度,国际货币基金组织采用GVAR模型,选取了1981年一季度到2013年一季度期间33个国家/地区的样本数据进行实证分析,结果显示:(1)中国GDP增速的下降将显著影响世界经济复苏进程,其下降1%会在短期内拖累全球经济增速放缓0.23个百分点;(2)全球金融市场波动加剧将使世界经济增速回落约0.29个百分点,同时也可能对全球股票市场、石油价格和长期利率产生短期负面影响。本刊编译了国际货币基金组织的这份报告,供广大金融界人士研究参考。
The declining growth rate of China’s GDP and the turmoil in the global financial markets will have a negative impact on the weak global economic recovery. In order to quantify the extent to which the world economy is affected by the above factors, the IMF uses the GVAR model to select the sample data from 33 countries / regions from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2013 for empirical analysis. The results show that: (1) China The drop in GDP growth will significantly affect the process of global economic recovery. A 1% decrease in this rate will drag 0.23 percentage point of the global economic slowdown in the short term. (2) The global financial market volatility will bring the world economic growth rate down by about 0.29 Percentage points, but also may have a short-term negative impact on global stock markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates. This compilation of the International Monetary Fund’s report for the general study of the financial sector for reference.