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针对大型复杂项目的高度不确定性,专家评价的模糊性和差异性等特点,本文给出了一种实用的语言评估新标度,并提出了不确定扩展语言信息的概念。利用改进的语言评估标度分别探讨确定语言信息、不确定语言信息及不确定扩展语言信息下的专家后验权重的确定方法,认为前两者均为后者的特殊表现形式。最后用型号项目风险评价实例证明了方法的科学有效性以及评价结果的合理性。
In view of the high uncertainty of large and complex projects, the fuzziness and difference of expert evaluation, this paper presents a new scale for practical linguistic assessment and proposes the concept of indefinite expansion of language information. The improved linguistic assessment scales are used to explore the methods to determine the posteriori weights of experts under the condition of uncertain linguistic information and indefinite extended linguistic information, respectively. Both of them are regarded as the special manifestations of the latter. Finally, the model project risk evaluation example proves the scientific validity of the method and the rationality of the evaluation results.