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参照已有的气候适宜性评价模型和冬小麦生理气候阈值,建立冬小麦气候适宜度模型,选取淮河流域及周边地区43个县(市)45年的逐日气象数据,对该流域冬小麦气候适宜性时空差异进行了分析。结果表明,该流域温度适宜性、降水适宜性、日照适宜性的空间分布与温度、降水和日照的空间分布有明显的一致性,它们和气候适宜性都呈现出一定的地域分布规律;降水和温度是影响该流域气候适宜度的重要限制因素,尤其是降水的影响最为明显;在全球气候变化的影响下,气候适宜性倾向率主要受日照的影响,以0.002/10 a的倾向率下降;温度、降水、日照和气候的适宜性倾向率具有明显的地域分异规律。
Based on the existing climate suitability assessment model and the winter wheat physiological climate threshold, a winter climate suitability model was established. The daily meteorological data of 43 counties (cities) in the Huaihe River Basin and its surrounding areas were selected for 45 years. The spatial and temporal variability of winter wheat climatic suitability Analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of temperature suitability, precipitation suitability and suitability of sunshine has obvious consistency with the spatial distribution of temperature, precipitation and sunshine. Both of them have certain geographical distribution with climate suitability; precipitation and Temperature is an important limiting factor affecting the climate suitability of the basin, especially the most obvious is the influence of precipitation. Under the influence of global climate change, the climate suitability tendency is mainly affected by sunshine and declines with a propensity of 0.002 / 10 a; Suitability trend rates of temperature, precipitation, sunshine and climate have obvious rules of regional differentiation.