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在菲利普斯模型的理论基础上,本文结合中国油价形成机制改革的具体情况,构建了国际油价和中国物价之间的实证模型。实证结果发现,油价冲击对中国CPI的影响有限,但位于油价传导中端的PPI对国际油价变动较为敏感,特别是油价改革之后油价对PPI的传导系数得到了显著的提升。研究表明,油价冲击在中国的传导极大地受到政府政策的影响,价格管制和激烈的市场竞争共同降低了中国下游生产厂商的成本转嫁能力,使中国的厂商在面临油价冲击时处于弱势地位。
Based on the Phillips model theory, this paper constructs an empirical model of the international oil price and the Chinese price based on the specific situation of the reform of the oil price formation mechanism in China. The empirical results show that the impact of oil price shock on CPI in China is limited. However, the PPI at the mid-end of oil price is more sensitive to the fluctuation of international oil prices. Especially after the oil price reform, the transmission coefficient of PPI has been significantly improved. Research shows that the transmission of oil shocks in China is greatly influenced by government policies. Price regulation and fierce market competition have all along helped to reduce the cost-shifting capacity of downstream Chinese manufacturers, leaving Chinese manufacturers vulnerable in the face of oil price shocks.