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本文分析认为,1998年以来我国实行的积极财政政策,受政府财力、财政风险的制约及“挤出效应”、旧体制复归等负面因素的影响,有必要适时“淡出”直至退出;同时,据对近年尤其是2003年上半年经济形势的判断,积极财政政策“淡出”的条件已基本具备。但鉴于我国经济中尚存在的问题和国内外的历史经验,应采取渐进式的“淡出”方式,可以把2003年、2004年作为积极财政政策“淡出”的过渡年。
The analysis of this paper argues that the active fiscal policy implemented in our country since 1998 is subject to the financial and financial risks of the government and the negative effects such as the “crowding-out effect” and the old system reversion. Therefore, it is necessary to “fade out” until its withdrawal. At the same time, Judging from the economic situation in recent years, especially in the first half of 2003, the conditions for a proactive fiscal policy to “fade out” have been basically met. However, given the problems still existing in our economy and the historical experience both at home and abroad, we should adopt a gradual “fade-out” approach that can turn 2003 and 2004 into a transitional year of “fading out” of active fiscal policy.