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以澜沧江流域为对象,采用气候倾向率、MK检验、Pearson相关性分析等方法,分析1958-2015年气温和降水的空间分布、年内分配及演变趋势,揭示径流演变的驱动要素。结果表明:澜沧江流域气温空间分布不均,上游温度低降水少,下游温度高降水多;降水和径流年内分配不均,主要集中于夏秋两季,径流峰值比降水峰值滞后一个月;1958-2015年气温呈上升的趋势,降水和径流呈下降趋势;2005年为径流出现突变的年份,年径流减少21.5%;气温升高、降水量减少对径流减少有一定贡献;气温与径流的相关性较差,降水径流相关性于2005年之后变差,尤其是夏秋两季。
Taking the Lancang River basin as an example, the spatial distribution, distribution and evolution trend of temperature and precipitation during 1958-2015 were analyzed by means of climate propensity, MK test and Pearson correlation analysis to reveal the driving factors of runoff evolution. The results show that there is an uneven spatial distribution of temperature in the Lancang River basin, with less rainfall in the upper reaches of the Lancang River and more rainfall in the lower reaches of the Lancang River. Rainfall and runoff are unevenly distributed throughout the year, mainly concentrated in summer and autumn, and the peak value of runoff lags behind the peak of precipitation by one month. The annual temperature showed a rising trend and the precipitation and runoff showed a decreasing trend. In 2005, the annual runoff was decreased by 21.5% in 2005 when the runoff was abrupt; the increase in temperature and precipitation led to a certain contribution to the decrease of runoff; Poor, precipitation runoff correlation worsened after 2005, especially in summer and autumn.