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基本农田划定是落实耕地保护、保证粮食安全的关键问题。目前,基本农田划定的相关研究多基于对耕地适宜性条件的评价,而未涉及对耕地历史变化过程的考虑,因而不能保证划定结果适应实际区域的耕地变化趋势,导致基本农田易被占用,补划与调整频繁。论文综合考虑耕地适宜性条件与历史动态变化状况,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络模型的基本农田划定方法。以湖北省大冶市这一典型资源型城市为实验区进行了实例研究,划定结果表明,该划定方法能在保证基本农田划定数量与质量的同时,提高其农业用途的稳定性,促进基本农田保护与经济建设、生态保护间协调发展,是一种有效的划定模型。
The delineation of basic farmland is the key issue of implementing the protection of farmland and ensuring food security. At present, the research on the basic farmland demarcation is mostly based on the evaluation of farmland suitability conditions, but does not involve the consideration of the process of farmland historical change, so it can not be guaranteed that the demarcation result adapts to the actual farmland change tendency and leads to the easy occupation of basic farmland , Replenishment and adjustment frequently. Based on a comprehensive consideration of the condition of farmland suitability and historical dynamic change, this paper proposes a method of basic farmland demarcation based on Bayesian network model. A typical resource-based city in Daye City of Hubei Province was selected as an experimental area. The delineation results show that this method can improve the stability of agricultural use while ensuring the quantity and quality of basic farmland. Promote the basic farmland protection and economic construction, coordinated development of ecological protection, is an effective delineation model.