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本文从贷款总量与经济增长总量、贷款区域结构与经济增长区域结构、贷款期限结构与经济增长的关系几方面入手,分析了江苏省贷款投放对经济增长的影响与作用。并对贷款总量与GDP增长的关系、短期贷款、中长期贷款与GDP增长的关系进行了实证研究,对比最小二乘法和分位数回归法的参数估计结果,得出了近两年总的贷款规模对GDP增长的促进作用在减弱,其中中长期贷款对经济增长的促进作用下降明显,需要刺激消费来激发经济的内生性。针对江苏省信贷领域存在问题提出有针对性的政策建议:调整信贷投放的领域与节奏,促进经济转型;减少政策对信贷投放的直接干预,激发经济内生性;加强金融市场竞争,拓宽企业融资渠道。使信贷投放能更好地促进江苏省经济结构的优化与转型。
This paper analyzes the relationship between the total loan amount and the total economic growth, the regional structure of the loan, the regional structure of the economic growth, the term structure of the loan and the economic growth. It analyzes the impact and role of the loan in Jiangsu Province on economic growth. And the relationship between the total loan and GDP growth, the relationship between short-term loans, medium-and long-term loans and GDP growth empirical study carried out by comparing the least square method and quantile regression method of parameter estimation results obtained in the past two years The effect of loan size on the promotion of GDP growth is weakened. Among them, the role of medium and long-term loans in promoting economic growth is obviously declining, and consumption needs to be stimulated to stimulate economic endogeneity. Targeting the existing problems in the credit field of Jiangsu Province, we put forward some policy recommendations: adjusting the areas and rhythms of credit distribution and promoting economic restructuring; reducing the direct intervention of policies on credit distribution and stimulating economic endogeneity; strengthening competition in the financial market and broadening the financing channels for enterprises . So that credit can better promote the optimization and transformation of economic structure in Jiangsu Province.