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最近,原油海上货流趋向短程化,而这种趋势还要继续一个时期,现在看来,估计至少也要继续到2000年。到1994年为止,一般的看法是:1995年的油船市场的平衡将得到改善,而今后10年内市场将坚挺。但是,现在又出现了以1996年为界供需再度拉开的看法。这并不是油船过量订造所使然,而是最近对石油货流预测所得到的修正为根据的。 下面就最近石油海上货流的变化加以验证。 1994年的吨位供给微减,吨位需求微增,运费有些上升。原油海上货流量不论是吨数和吨海里数都有增长。原油输出的增长,至少有一半份额是从中东运往东南亚和日本的货量。而中东运往美国的份额稍有增加。美国原油输入的增长,大部分来自中南美以及西欧。 至于今后油船的需求,最近预测与2～3年前的预测相比,其增长量要缩小。油船供需
Recently, the trend of shortening the flow of crude oil and sea freight tends to continue for a period of time. At present, it is estimated that it will continue at least until 2000. As of 1994, the general view is that the balance of the tanker market in 1995 will be improved and the market will be firm in the next 10 years. However, there is now another re-emergence of supply and demand in 1996 as the world community. This is not the result of an overbooking of oil tankers, but rather a recent amendment to the prediction of oil cargo flows. Here's the recent changes in the oil and the flow of goods to be verified. The supply of tonnage decreased slightly in 1994, the demand for tonnage increased slightly and the freight rate increased slightly. Both the tonnage of crude oil and the tonnage of nautical miles have increased. At least half of the increase in crude oil output is for shipments from the Middle East to Southeast Asia and Japan. While the share of the Middle East shipped to the United States increased slightly. Most of the increase in U.S. crude imports comes from Central and South America and Western Europe. As for the demand for oil tankers in the future, the recent forecast has narrowed compared with the forecast 2-3 years ago. Oil tanker supply and demand