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光伏发电系统的输出功率受到太阳辐照强度、辐照时长和气温等多种气象因素的影响,具有随机性和波动性。对各种气象影响因素进行合理的选取和处理,寻求光伏发电系统输出功率与各种相关因素之间的内在联系,对光伏发电系统未来的输出功率进行科学的预测。由于具有相似气象条件下的光伏阵列输出功率具有较大的关联性,提出选择光伏阵列输出功率相似日的方法,设计基于相似日原理的BP神经网络光伏阵列输出功率预测模型,利用我国某地光伏发电系统的实测数据对模型进行验证。结果表明,模型有较好的预测准确度,具有一定的实用性及可行性。
The output power of photovoltaic power generation system is affected by many weather factors, such as solar radiation intensity, irradiation duration and temperature, and has randomness and volatility. The reasonable selection and treatment of all kinds of meteorological factors, seeking the intrinsic relationship between the output power of photovoltaic power generation system and various related factors, make a scientific prediction of the future output power of photovoltaic power generation system. Due to the large correlation between output power of PV array with similar meteorological conditions, a method of selecting PV array output power similar day is proposed, and a BP neural network based on similar day principle is designed to predict the output power of PV array. The measured data of power generation system verify the model. The results show that the model has a good prediction accuracy and has some practicality and feasibility.