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我国2005年电源投资3228亿元,其中火电投资2270.6亿元,占70.3%;非化石电源投资957.4亿元,占29.7%。2010年我国电源投资3641亿元,其中火电投资1311亿元,占36%;非化石电源投资2330亿元,占64%。“十一五”期间,我国火电新增装机容量锐减,非化石电源新增装机容量剧增,而每年新增发电量则逐年减少。我国2006年火电新增装机容量9287×104kW,到2010年新增火电装机容量降为5872×104kW;我国2006年非化石电源新增装机容量1216×104kW,到2010年非化石电源新增装机容量上升到3256×104kW。每年新增装机容量可增加的年发量,2006年估计为5400×108kW.h,到2010年已降为4000×108kW.h左右。2010年我国电源投资中仅占36%的火电,却提供了64%的新增装机容量,而占64%的非化石电源只提供了约36%的新增装机容量,如果按新增发电量计,则火电机组提供的发电量比例更高。按中国电力企业联合会的规则,“十二五”期间我国非化石电源比例进一步增加,火电增幅继续下降。按火电机组等效容量计,2010~2015年年均增长率仅为8%,低于同期国内年均用电量增长率8.5%。鉴于我国的资源禀赋条件和“十一五”、“十二五”电源构成的变化趋势及其后果,建议我国应适应增加煤电的比重。
China’s power investment in 2005 322.8 billion yuan, of which 220.76 billion yuan thermal power investment, accounting for 70.3%; non-fossil power investment 95.74 billion yuan, accounting for 29.7%. In 2010, China’s power investment was 364.1 billion yuan, of which 131.1 billion yuan was thermal power investment, accounting for 36%; non-fossil power investment was 233.0 billion yuan, accounting for 64%. During the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the installed capacity of thermal power in China dropped sharply, the newly installed capacity of non-fossil power sources increased sharply, and the amount of newly increased generating capacity decreased year by year. China’s thermal power in 2006, the new installed capacity of 9287 × 104kW, by 2010 the thermal power installed capacity reduced to 5872 × 104kW; China’s non-fossil power 2006 new installed capacity of 1216 × 104kW, non-fossil power sources in 2010 to increase the installed capacity Rose to 3256 × 104kW. The annual increase of newly-added installed capacity per year is estimated to be 5400 × 108kW.h in 2006 and reduced to about 4000 × 108kW.h in 2010. In 2010, only 36% of China’s power investment in thermal power, but provides 64% of new installed capacity, while 64% of non-fossil power supply only provides about 36% of the new installed capacity, if the amount of new power generation Meter, then the thermal power unit to provide a higher proportion of generating capacity. According to the rules of the China Electricity Council, the proportion of non-fossil fuels in China increased during the 12th Five-Year Plan, and the growth of thermal power continued to decline. By the equivalent capacity of thermal power units, the average annual growth rate from 2010 to 2015 was only 8%, lower than the domestic average annual growth rate of 8.5%. In view of the resource endowment conditions in our country and the changing trends and consequences of the “Eleventh Five-Year” and “Twelfth Five-Year” power supply structure, it is suggested that China should adapt to increase the proportion of coal and electricity.