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为定量研究国家乒乓球男队备战2009年世界乒乓球锦标赛所采用的四分关键球新赛制,并为有针对性的赛制设计和创新提供理论上的辅助.在合理的假设下,建立乒乓球赛制分析的概率模型,定量地分析比较四分关键球、11分以及8:8或10:10开局等赛制下不同水平运动员的取胜概率.结果发现:四分关键球制在接近实战的模式下,适当地增加了比赛的偶然性,突出了开局的重要性和对关键球把握能力的要求,提升了对抗强度.通过严格的定量分析认为,四分关键球赛制构思巧妙,能够很好地达到其制定的初衷,是对训练赛制创新性的改进,是科学地针对目的制定合理训练赛制的成功尝试.这一新的训练赛制理论上具备坚实的合理性.“,”Purpose and Significance: A new game system,4-point system,is adopted by Chinese Men's National Table Tennis Team in the first stage of trials for 2009 World Table Tennis Championships.We study the new game system quantitatively and hope to provide useful assistant tools theoretically for designing an appropriate game rule,which aims to the specific training goals.Methods: Under the reasonable hypothesis,a probability model is introduced to analyze the game systems quantitatively.The comparison between 11-poiont system,start with 8:8 or 10:10 and the new 4-point system is presented in this paper.Result: It is shown that the new system increases the uncertainty of games properly.It makes the start more important and enhances the requirement of ability to seize the key points.Based on rigorous quantitative analysis,we think that the 4-point system is a clever game system design and can achieve its original intentions well.It is an innovative,scientific and rational system.