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运用中国1985年~2011年的省际面板数据,对农民的家庭消费数据进行HP滤波处理后本文发现农业灾害明显的加剧了农民的消费波动,即使在考虑了市场化的平均水平后,这种效应仍然存在,而中国的市场化进程可以相对的平滑农业灾害带来的农民消费波动,但总的来看市场化通过影响农民收入从而在整体上提高了农民的消费波动。家庭消费结构的信息表明农业灾害对农民的日常消费品支出影响显著,但固定资产和耐用消费品支出对农业受灾程度的反应并不敏感,市场化进程同样可以相对地平滑各分项消费的波动。推进中国农村地区的市场化进程是帮助农民应对灾害冲击,提高消费水平的重要途径。
After using HP filter to deal with household consumption data of farmers from 1985 to 2011 in China, this paper finds that agricultural disasters obviously aggravate peasants’ consumption fluctuations. Even after considering the average level of marketization, Effect still exists, while China’s marketization process can relatively smooth the peasant consumption fluctuations brought by agricultural disasters, but marketization generally improves the peasant consumption fluctuations on the whole as a result of affecting farmers’ income. The information on household consumption structure shows that agricultural disasters have a significant impact on peasants’ daily consumer goods expenditures. However, the response of fixed assets and consumer durables to the degree of agricultural disaster is not sensitive. The marketization process can also relatively smooth the fluctuation of various items of consumption. Advancing the marketization process in rural areas of China is an important way to help farmers cope with disasters and increase consumption levels.