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利用面板平滑转换模型对我国35个大中城市的房屋价格和收入基本面的关系进行研究.结果发现:房屋价格与工资收入之间存在显著非线性关系;房屋价格对工资收入的线性弹性系数约为0.602,即:平均工资上涨1个单位,房屋价格上涨0.602个单位,而非线性部分则每个城市各不相同;深圳、北京、上海、杭州等城市的房屋价格存在相对较大的非线性,与支撑房价的收入基本面背离较多,可能存在泡沫成分;在房屋改革初期我国房屋价格经历了一段房屋价格向收入基本面回归的过程,金融危机前房价出现了偏离收入基本面的现象,金融危机促进房屋价格向收入基本面靠近,但是金融危机后的救市措施和宽松的货币环境等因素再度导致房价偏离收入基本面.
The panel smooth transition model is used to study the relationship between house price and income fundamentals in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China. The results show that there is a significant nonlinear relationship between house price and wage income. The linear elasticity of house price to wage income is about Is 0.602, that is, the average wage increases by 1 unit, the house price increases by 0.602 units, while the non-linear part varies from city to city; and there are relatively large nonlinearities in housing prices in cities such as Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou , With the supporting housing prices fundamentals face more deviation, there may be a bubble component; in the early stages of housing reform, housing prices in China experienced a period of housing prices to return to the process of income fundamentals, prices before the financial crisis appeared deviation from the fundamentals of income, Financial crisis to promote housing prices close to the fundamentals of income, but the bailout measures after the financial crisis and loose monetary environment and other factors once again lead to housing prices deviate from the fundamentals of income.