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根据风险决策理论，考虑水库调洪过程中多种水文不确定因素，通过概率组合方法，用实测水文资料估算了水库的防洪能力．结果表明，本方法比仅依赖设计洪水过程给出的防洪标准更能反映水库的实际防洪作用．
According to the risk decision theory, considering various hydrological uncertainties during the process of flood control, the reservoir flood control ability is estimated by the measured hydrological data by the method of probability combination. The results show that this method can better reflect the actual flood control effect of the reservoir than relying on flood control standards given in the design flood process.