论文部分内容阅读
风险作为一种引致损失事件发生的可能性,对经济增长会产生相应的影响。本文首先建立了一个关于风险影响经济增长的理论模型,在一个同时包含物质资本与人力资本的新古典经济增长模型基础上,引入反应风险情况的示性函数,并通过界定风险情况的发生概率将其具体化。发现在参数满足一定的条件下,风险概率和损失程度的提高即风险的提高是可以促进经济增长的。本文利用2005~2014年我国31个省市的面板数据,通过构建单方程模型、联立方程模型、含风险因素滞后项的模型,以灾害损失风险为例对风险、保险和经济增长的相互作用关系进行实证分析。研究发现,风险的增加会促进经济增长,采用不同计量方法,以及尝试将风险因素分别作为外生变量与内生变量的处理,均得到了相似的结论,说明本文研究具有较强的稳健性。
As a possibility of causing the loss event, risk has a corresponding impact on economic growth. This paper first establishes a theoretical model of risk-influencing economic growth. Based on a neoclassical economic growth model that includes both physical capital and human capital, this paper introduces an explicit function of the reaction risk and defines the risk probability by Its concrete. It is found that under certain conditions of parameters, the increase of risk probability and loss, that is, the increase of risk, can promote economic growth. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2014, this paper constructs the model of one-equation model, the simultaneous equations model and the lag-term model with risk factors, taking the risk of disaster loss as an example to the interaction of risk, insurance and economic growth The relationship between the empirical analysis. The study found that the increased risk will promote economic growth, adopt different measurement methods, and try to deal with the risk factors as exogenous variables and endogenous variables respectively. All these conclusions are similar, which shows that the study is robust.