本稿以笔者所在高校日语专业二、三年级共121名学生为实验对象,以阿依努族民间故事《金烟袋》作为实验文章,考察了不同水平日语学习者在阅读过程中的预测能力是否存在差异。调查结果表明二、三年级之间的预测能力无显著性差异。另外,从整体来看,二、三年级的不贴切预测比率高,预测内容分散。 In this paper, 121 students majoring in Japanese majors in the second and third years of college are selected as the experimental subjects. The “Golden Tobacco Bag” of Ayunu folk story is used as an experimental article to examine whether the predictive ability of Japanese learners at different levels in reading process exists difference. The results of the survey indicate that there is no significant difference in predictive ability between the second and third grades. In addition, on the whole, the unwise forecast rates for Grade Two and Grade Three are high, and the forecast content is fragmented.