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本文搜集整理相关统计年鉴中1998~2013年浙江省的海洋捕捞产量和海洋捕捞机动渔船基本情况的数据,利用非平衡产量模型结合逻辑斯蒂模型计算出最大持续产量(Maximum Sustainable Yield,MSY),然后利用最大持续产量构建了海洋渔业资源承载力评价模型,对1998~2013年浙江省海洋渔业资源承载力状况进行了评估。评估结果显示:在1998~2013年,仅2007年和2008年的浙江省海洋渔业资源承载力状况是可载的,占研究年份的13%;2009年的浙江省海洋渔业资源承载力状况是临界超载的,占研究年份的6%;其余年份的浙江省海洋渔业资源承载力状况均处于超载状态,占研究年份的81%之多,过度捕捞现象严重。本文应用非平衡产量模型计算最大持续产量,首次利用统计学方法构建了海洋渔业资源承载力评价模型,对海洋渔业资源承载力状况进行评估,旨在为今后开展浙江省乃至全国海洋渔业资源承载力,甚至是海洋资源环境承载力的研究提供技术支撑。
In this paper, the data of marine fishing production and the basic situation of marine fishing motor fishing vessels in Zhejiang Statistical Yearbook collected from 1998 to 2013 were collected, and the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) was calculated by using the unbalanced production model and Logistic model. Then, the maximum sustainable yield was used to construct the evaluation model of marine fishery resource carrying capacity, and the assessment of the carrying capacity of marine fishery resources in Zhejiang Province from 1998 to 2013 was conducted. The assessment results show that in 1998 ~ 2013, the carrying capacity of marine fishery resources in Zhejiang Province was only available in 2007 and 2008, accounting for 13% of the study year. In 2009, the carrying capacity of marine fishery resources in Zhejiang Province was critical Overloaded, accounting for 6% of the study year; the rest of the year, the carrying capacity of marine fishery resources in Zhejiang Province are in an overloaded state, accounting for as much as 81% of the study year, overfishing serious. This paper uses the unbalanced production model to calculate the maximum continuous production. For the first time, this paper constructs the evaluation model of marine fishery resource carrying capacity by using statistical method, and evaluates the carrying capacity of marine fishery resources. It aims to develop the carrying capacity of marine fishery resources in Zhejiang Province and the whole country , And even provide support for the research on the carrying capacity of marine resources and the environment.