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针对不完全信息下的突发事件应急风险决策问题,考虑应急决策者有限理性、损失敏感、易受突发事件相关因素影响的特征,提出了一种基于累积前景理论的区间多属性应急风险诀策模型。在对应急决策方案在不同指标及风险状态下的属性值进行规范化处理的基础上,建立正、负理想点作为参考点计算价值函数;基于累积前景理论确定风险概率权重;通过计算各方案的综合前景价值,对应急方案进行排序择优。最后,通过案例分析验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。
In order to solve the emergency risk decision-making under incomplete information and to consider the characteristics of the emergency decision-maker’s bounded rationality, loss-sensitiveness and vulnerability to the impact of emergency related factors, a multi-attribute emergency risk tactic based on cumulative foreground theory Policy model. Based on the standardization of the attribute values of emergency decision schemes under different indexes and risk states, positive and negative ideal points are established as reference points to calculate the value function; the risk probability weight is determined based on the cumulative foreground theory; Foreground value, the contingency plan to sort preferences. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method are verified by case studies.