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基于一般均衡条件下的代际预算约束模型,本文选取时间跨度为2000-2014年的29个新兴经济体国家的面板数据,检验新兴经济体的财政反应函数,在此基础上,测算中国政府债务的上限。结果表明,政府负债率理论上限为130.50%,历年实际负债率上限处于84.81%-93.04%之间,就实际负债率而言,政府债务具有可持续性,且可持续的空间较大。本文进一步设计压力情景,研究宏观经济环境变动对政府债务可持续性的影响发现,利率的变动与负债率上限呈反向关系;经济增长率的变动与负债率上限变动存在正向关系;负债率的上限随经济规模对稳态值的正向偏离程度的减小而降低,随经济规模对稳态值的负向偏离程度的减小而提高;负债率上限随财政支出对稳态值正向偏离的增大而下降,随财政支出对稳态值的负向偏离上升而增加。总的来说,中国政府债务是可持续的,压力测试的结果也较为乐观,但影响债务可持续的风险依然存在。
Based on the inter-generational budget constraint model under general equilibrium conditions, this paper selects the panel data of 29 emerging economies with a time span of 2000-2014 to test the financial response function of emerging economies. Based on this, the government debt The ceiling. The result shows that the theoretical upper limit of government debt rate is 130.50%, and the upper limit of actual debt ratio over the years is between 84.81% and 93.04%. As far as the actual debt ratio is concerned, the government debt is sustainable and the space for sustainable development is relatively large. This paper further designs stress scenarios to study the impact of changes in macroeconomic environment on the sustainability of government debt. It is found that there is a negative relationship between changes in interest rates and the upper limit of debt ratio. There is a positive relationship between changes in economic growth rate and upper limit of debt ratio. Debt ratio The upper bound decreases with the decrease of the positive deviation of the steady-state value from the economic scale, and increases with the decrease of the negative deviation of the steady-state value from the economic scale. The upper limit of the debt- Deviation increases and decreases, with the financial expenditure on the steady-state value of the negative deviation increases. In general, the government debt in China is sustainable and the result of the stress test is also more optimistic. However, the risk of debt sustainability still exists.