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为量化和预测高速公路价值,测定高速公路价值的主要影响因素,确保高速公路保值增值,采用灰色预测方法建立灰色预测模型进行高速公路价值的预测,并通过残差检验以验证模型的精准度;采用灰色关联度分析方法,寻找价值影响主要因素,确定各影响因素间的联动关系,并以福建高速作为实证分析对象,对所建模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明:以0.642 0的残差值通过模型精度检验,福建高速未来3年的价值为470 218万元;福建高速价值的净现金流与养护业务成本、运营收入、征收业务成本、土地租金、路政支出、监控业务成本、路产折旧等相关因素的关联度依次为0.98,0.94,0.90,0.90,0.88,0.87,0.83;在各影响因素之间,按照取高原则和不重复原则,运营收入与征收业务成本关联系数为0.96,关联度较高;路产折旧与监控业务成本关联系数为0.94,关联度较高;路政支出与监控业务关联系数为0.99,关联度较高;该构建模型可用于高速公路价值预测,灰色关联度分析可作为探寻价值影响主因、测定影响因素间联动关系的有效方法,其结果可为高速公路实施价值管理提供依据。
In order to quantify and predict the value of expressway, the main factors affecting the value of expressway are determined to ensure that the value of the highway is preserved and increased. The gray prediction model is established to forecast the value of expressway. The residual test is used to verify the accuracy of the model. Using the method of gray relational analysis, we find the main factors affecting the value and determine the linkage between the various influencing factors. Taking Fujian Expressway as an example, the empirical analysis of the model is made. The results show that: the residual value of 0.642 0 through the model accuracy test, Fujian high-speed value of 470.18 million yuan in the next three years; Fujian high-speed net cash flow and conservation business costs, operating income, business costs levied, land rent , The related factors such as road transportation expenditure, monitoring business cost and road product depreciation were 0.98, 0.94, 0.90, 0.90, 0.88, 0.87, 0.83; Among all the influencing factors, in accordance with the principle of high and non-repetition, The correlation coefficient between income and business cost was 0.96, and the correlation degree was high. The correlation coefficient between business depreciation and monitoring business cost was 0.94, and the correlation degree was high. The correlation coefficient between road expenditure and monitoring business was 0.99, and the correlation degree was high. Which can be used to predict the value of expressway. Gray correlation analysis can be used as an effective way to explore the main cause of the impact of the value and determine the linkage between the influencing factors. The results can provide the basis for the value management of the expressway.