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从1990~2014年这一时期来看,中国经济增长与全社会电量需求增长之间的关系基本稳定。但是具体到某些年份,由于各种原因,经济增速放缓时,当年电量需求的增速也同时下降,而且电量需求增速降低的幅度明显大于GDP增速降低的幅度,出现了经济下行时,电量需求增速变化与GDP增速变化不同步,甚至相差幅度较大的现象。分析经济增长与电量需求关系,尤其需分析经济下行时,同年电量增速下滑幅度更大的原因。通过理论与数学演算证实,经济年增长率与电量增长率关系的变化,与单位增加值的电耗系数是紧密相关的。经济增长率与电量增长率之间的差异度受年度间电耗系数的变化影响很大,当全行业t年的电耗系数比t-1年的电耗系数下降时,电量增长率低于经济增长率,下降幅度愈大,两者间差异度愈大。当年电耗系数比达到0.9左右时,电量增速为负增长率。采用LMDI因素分解法对北京市和山西省进行实证分析,也证实了此关系。
From 1990 to 2014, the relationship between China’s economic growth and the growth of electricity demand in the whole society was basically stable. However, specific to certain years, due to various reasons, when economic growth slowed down, the growth rate of electricity demand in the same year also dropped at the same time, and the rate of decrease of electricity demand growth was significantly greater than the rate of GDP growth reduction, there has been an economic downturn When the change in electricity demand growth and GDP growth are not synchronized, or even a large margin of variation. Analysis of the relationship between economic growth and electricity demand, in particular, the need to analyze the economic downturn, the same year the reasons for greater decline in electricity growth rate. Through theoretical and mathematical calculations, it is confirmed that the change of the relationship between the annual economic growth rate and the electricity consumption growth rate is closely related to the power consumption coefficient of unit added value. The difference between the rate of economic growth and the rate of increase in electricity consumption is greatly affected by the change in the power consumption coefficient during the year. When the power consumption coefficient in the whole industry is lower than the electricity consumption in t-1, the rate of increase in electricity consumption is lower than The rate of economic growth, the greater decline, the greater the difference between the two. When the power factor ratio reached about 0.9 when the electricity growth rate of negative growth. The empirical analysis of Beijing and Shanxi provinces using the LMDI factorization method also confirms this relationship.