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为有效避免研制项目出现“拖、降、涨”等恶性现象,大型复杂装备研制多采用项目群管理模式,由于同时开放了风险环境,增强了子项目间的复杂交互,使得研制项目群风险管理成为制约项目研制成功率的关键因素。目前装备研制风险管理研究以及项目群风险管理研究多是从静态或局部的角度来展开,虽然也有数值仿真方面的研究,但是对不同风险因素间的动态交互行为,及其进而造成的风险动态演化机制缺乏系统的分析,于是项目群风险演化动力学问题成为下一步的重要研究方向。
In order to effectively avoid such vicious phenomena as “dragging, dropping, rising” and so on, the development of large-scale complex equipment adopts the project management mode. Since the risk environment is opened at the same time, the complicated interaction between sub-projects is enhanced, Risk management has become a key factor restricting the success rate of project development. At present, the researches on equipment development risk management and project risk management mostly start from static or partial perspectives. Although there are some researches on numerical simulation, the dynamic interaction between different risk factors and their subsequent dynamic evolution of risk Lack of systematic analysis of the mechanism, so the project risk evolution dynamics of the problem has become the next important research direction.