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对武警部队应急军需物资需求预测进行了分析,明确了预测内容、方法和程序,建立起基于参战人数和参战时间两个因素的应急军需物资需求预测模型。拟合优度检验和实例计算结果表明,应急军需物资需求数量主要由参战人员和参战时间决定,并可以通过数理统计方法来建立较为精确的数量关系,这为各级后勤制定军需物资保障计划提供了更为科学的依据。
This paper analyzes the material demand forecast of the Armed Police Forces, and clarifies the contents, methods and procedures of the forecast, and establishes a demand forecast model for the demand of the emergency munitions based on the number of warrants and the time of the war. Goodness of fit test and case calculation show that the demand for emergency munitions is mainly determined by the number of personnel participating in the war and the time of the war, and mathematical relationships can be used to establish a more accurate quantitative relationship. This provides the logistics support for military supplies at all levels A more scientific basis.