论文部分内容阅读
本文建立投入产出模型,基于可比价投入产出序列表测算中国居民消费品载能碳排放量;基于结构分解方法分析影响居民消费品载能碳排放的主要因素并量化其贡献率。结果显示,样本期内我国居民消费品载能碳排放变动的影响因素按贡献率绝对值由大到小排列依次是:居民消费水平、部门排放强度、部门中间生产需求结构、人口规模及居民消费结构。其中,消费水平与人口规模均表现为持续的正效应,部门排放强度表现为持续的负效应,中间需求与消费结构的贡献率则经历从负到正的变动,总体上表现为正效应。研究表明该阶段我国居民消费模式的变动尚缺少低碳维度的有力支撑。
In this paper, we establish an input-output model to estimate carbon emissions from consumer goods in China based on a comparable input-output inventory. We analyze the main factors that affect carbon emissions from consumer goods based on the structural decomposition method and quantify their contribution rates. The results show that in the sample period, the determinants of the changes in the carbon emissions from consumer goods in China are as follows: the consumption level of residents, the discharge intensity of departments, the structure of demand for intermediate production in departments, the population size and the structure of household consumption . Among them, both the consumption level and the population size showed a continuous positive effect, the sector discharge intensity showed a persistent negative effect, and the contribution rate of the intermediate demand and consumption structure went through a negative-to-positive change, showing generally a positive effect. The research shows that at this stage, the change of residents’ consumption pattern in our country still lacks the strong support of the low-carbon dimension.