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目的:研究经济增长与人口老龄化对医疗费用增长的空间效应影响,并提出相应的建议。方法:基于2005—2012年的8年时间数据,31个省的横截面数据,以人口老龄化程度与人均GDP作为解释变量,医疗费用作为被解释变量,利用不含空间效应的面板数据模型跟含有空间效应的面板模型进行分析,通过Wald跟LR统计量选出最好的空间面板模型。结果:变量间存在空间效应,而且老龄化跟经济增长都对医疗费用的增加具有显著性的影响,老龄化对医疗费用的增加的影响更大。结论:鼓励做好老年医疗卫生服务工作,加强老年人的医疗保健工作,定期体检,控制医疗价格的变化,提高人均收入,放开生育政策等。
Objective: To study the impact of economic growth and population aging on the spatial effect of medical expenses growth, and put forward corresponding suggestions. Methods: Based on the data of eight years from 2005 to 2012, the cross-sectional data of 31 provinces were taken as explanatory variables based on the degree of population aging and GDP per capita. Medical expenses were used as explanatory variables. Using the panel data model without space effect The panel model with spatial effects is analyzed and the best spatial panel model is selected by Wald and LR statistics. Results: There was spatial effect between variables, and both aging and economic growth had a significant impact on the increase of medical expenses. Aging had a greater impact on the increase of medical expenses. Conclusion: Encouraging the elderly health care service, strengthening the medical care of the elderly, regular medical examination, controlling the change of the medical price, raising the per capita income and releasing the birth policy.