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自1994年汇率体制改革以来,中国的宏观经济调控一直以经济增长、充分就业和物价稳定为最为重要的目标,忽视了国际收支平衡这个目标。随着对外开放的不断深入,外部失衡问题愈加严重,并且对中国经济的内部均衡目标造成了巨大的冲击,因此目前有必要加快转变原有的宏观经济调控方式,把国际收支平衡纳入宏观经济调控的目标体系。本文在深入分析中国外部经济失衡原因的基础上,根据丁伯根的汇率政策模型,提出了短期实现内外经济均衡发展的政策工具搭配,为实现中国内外经济均衡这一目标提供了新的研究视角。在此基础上,本文也提出了长期实现其内外经济均衡发展的政策建议。
Since the reform of the exchange rate system in 1994, China’s macroeconomic regulation and control has been the most important goal of economic growth, full employment and price stability, ignoring the goal of international balance of payments. With the deepening of opening up to the outside world, the problem of external imbalances has become more serious and has caused a huge impact on the internal balance of China’s economy. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the transformation of the existing mode of macroeconomic control and incorporate the balance of payments into the macroeconomy Regulation of the target system. Based on the analysis of the causes of China’s external economic imbalance, this paper proposes the short-term match of policy instruments for the balanced development of internal and external economy according to Dingbergen’s exchange rate policy model, which provides a new perspective for the realization of China’s domestic and foreign economic balance. On this basis, this paper also put forward some policy suggestions for long-term realization of the balanced development of its internal and external economy.