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基于塔里木河流域25个气象站1960~2011年的逐年降水资料,利用Z指数及相应的区域旱涝指标、M-K秩次相关法、R/S法、克里格插值法对该流域的降水量特征、干旱特征的变化趋势进行了时空分析。研究表明,流域由北向南多年平均降水量逐渐减小,年降水量变差系数逐渐增大;20世纪90年代前流域多以干旱为主,90年代后则多为偏雨,流域25个气象站中24个站的Z指数值存在上升趋势,并有11个站通过了90%置信度的M-K显著性检验,22个站点的Hurst值表明未来Z指数仍保持上升的趋势;流域有由干旱向湿润转化的趋势,转化趋势以源流区阿克苏河及中下游区域的站点最为明显;各年代Z指数值的空间分布状况有所不同,90年代的规律性最强。
Based on the precipitation data of 25 weather stations in the Tarim Basin from 1960 to 2011, the Z index, corresponding drought and flood index, MK rank correlation method, R / S method and Kriging method were used to analyze the precipitation Characteristics and drought characteristics of the trend of space-time analysis. The results show that the average precipitation in the basin decreases gradually from north to south for many years, and the coefficient of variation of annual precipitation increases gradually. Before the 1990s, most of the basins were mostly dry, but after the 1990s, they were mostly wet and 25 meteorological stations Z stations in 24 stations have an upward trend and 11 stations have passed the 90% confidence test in MK significance. The Hurst values of 22 stations indicate that the Z index will continue to rise in the future. The tendency of wet transformation is that the trend of conversion is the most obvious in the Aksu River and the middle and lower reaches of the source area. The spatial distribution of Z index is different in each age, and the strongest in the 1990s.