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目的探讨前瞻性时空扫描统计量与时空重排扫描统计量在传染病聚集性探测中的适用性。方法以成都市2009年5、6月细菌性痢疾病例数据为例,分别采用前瞻性时空扫描统计量与时空重排扫描统计量,运用SaTScan9.0软件进行聚集性探测,并对结果进行比较分析。结果前瞻性时空扫描统计量扫描结果与成都各区县实际发病轨迹较接近,前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量在发病率较低的区域扫描结果有相对较多的误报。结论由于前瞻性时空扫描统计量考虑了人口数据信息,在低发病区域,实际应用中应尽量采用时空扫描统计量进行聚集性探测。
Objective To investigate the applicability of forward-looking spatio-temporal scanning statistics and spatio-temporal rearrangement scanning statistics in the detection of infectious disease clustering. Methods The cases of bacillary dysentery in May and June of 2009 in Chengdu were used as an example. The prospective time-space scan statistics and spatiotemporal rearrangement scan statistics were used respectively, and the clustering detection was performed by SaTScan 9.0 software. The results were compared and analyzed . Results The results of prospective spatio-temporal scanning were close to the actual pathological records in all districts and counties in Chengdu. The prospective space-time rearrangement scan statistics had relatively more false positives in the region with lower incidence. Conclusion Because the prospective spatio-temporal scanning statistics take population data into account, in the low incidence area, the space-time scanning statistics should be used for clustering detection in practice.