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介绍了“中国煤炭峰值预测”课题组采用部门耗煤法预测的我国煤炭消费峰值的核心内容及结论。研究认为,我国煤炭消费将在2020年达到峰值,煤炭峰值水平为47.6亿t。届时,煤炭消费结构为电力、钢铁、建材、化工4大行业及其他用煤占比分别为54.74%、12.44%、11.56%、15.45%、5.8%。最后提出政府及企业应对煤炭峰值到来的相关建议。
This paper introduces the core content and conclusions of China’s coal consumption peak predicted by the “Coal Peak Forecasting of China” project by departmental coal consumption method. According to the research, coal consumption in China will reach its peak in 2020 with a peak coal level of 4.76 billion tons. By then, coal consumption structure of electricity, steel, building materials, chemical industry and other four major coal and other coal accounted for 54.74%, 12.44%, 11.56%, 15.45%, 5.8%. Finally, the government and enterprises are suggested to deal with the peak of coal supply.