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运用多测站校正检验机制率定方法,应用MIKESHE模型量化评价土地利用与降水变化对流域水文的影响。结果表明,尽管MIKESHE模型在流域上游大阁站的模拟性能稍逊于下会站和戴营站,3个测站校正和验证阶段的Nash-sutchliffe系数值分别为0.56和0.49、0.65和0.69、0.57和0.68,但模型对于各测站平均径流的模拟效果较好,说明该模型在潮河流域等华北土石山区具有一定的适用性和应用潜力。与基准期(1963—1979年)相比,1980—1989年潮河流域年径流量减少约22 mm,土地利用与降水变化对流域水文变化的贡献相当,两者分别占总径流变化的59%和41%;1990—1999年年径流量较基准期基本没有变化,这主要是由于降水变化与土地利用变化对流域水文的影响作用相反;2000—2008年,流域年径流量较基准期减少35 mm,降水变化对径流减少的影响作用占80%,土地利用变化则占20%。
Applying the calibration method of multi-station calibration test mechanism, the MIKESHE model was used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of land use and precipitation changes on hydrology in the basin. The results show that although the simulation performance of the MIKESHE model is lower than that of the Xiahui station and Daiying station in the upper reaches of the river basin, the Nash-sutchliffe coefficients in the calibration and verification stages of the three stations are 0.56 and 0.49, 0.65 and 0.69 respectively, 0.57 and 0.68, respectively. However, the model has a better simulation effect on average runoff of each station, which shows that the model has some applicability and potential in the North China earth and rock mountain areas such as the Chao River basin. Compared with the baseline period (1963-1979), annual runoff in the Chao River Basin decreased by about 22 mm between 1980 and 1989. The contribution of land use and precipitation changes to hydrological changes in the basin was comparable, accounting for 59% And 41% respectively. The annual runoff in 1990-1999 was basically unchanged from the baseline period, which was mainly due to the opposite effect of precipitation change and land use change on basin hydrology. From 2000 to 2008, annual runoff decreased by 35% mm, the effect of precipitation change on runoff reduction is 80%, and land use change is 20%.