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目前国内对城市建设用地增长的驱动力研究主要集中在经济发展和城市化等宏观因素上,而国外相关研究则更多关注于居民收入水平、地价、生活方式的改变等微观因素上。本文尝试从城市居民收入水平的角度来解读我国城市建设快速增长的问题。文章采用协整分析法对城镇居民人均家庭可支配收入和建成区面积进行分析,得到如下结论:我国居民收入水平和城市建设用地之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内的响应关系不明显;城镇居民可支配收入是建成区面积变化的Granger原因,但滞后阶在3以上,反向关系不明显。这表明我国城市居民收入水平的提高对城市建设用地增加有所影响,但这种影响短期内不明显,更多地表现为一种长期的作用。
At present, the research on the driving forces for the growth of urban construction land mainly focuses on the macroeconomic factors such as economic development and urbanization, while the related research abroad focuses more on the microcosmic factors such as the residents’ income level, land prices and life style changes. This paper attempts to interpret the rapid urban growth in China from the perspective of urban residents’ income level. The article uses cointegration analysis method to analyze the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the area of built-up areas. The conclusion is as follows: There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between residents’ income level and urban construction land use, but the short-term response is not obvious; Resident disposable income is the Granger reason for the change of the built-up area, but the lag order is above 3, and the reverse relationship is not obvious. This shows that the increase of income level of urban residents in our country has an impact on the increase of urban construction land use, but this effect is not obvious in the short term and more often shows a long-term effect.