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国际油价在经历了2个月的震荡后,6月中旬以来再度持续下跌,已跌至近半年低位,累计跌幅23%。除油企外,天然气行业也遭受重创,其中原本就供过于求的液化天然气(LNG)产业雪上加霜,生存空间进一步被压缩。事实上,随着近年来美国、加拿大等国页岩气产量快速增加,基础设施明显改善,全球LNG市场供求关系格局发生重大变化,多家机构预测,LNG供大于求的局面将长期存在。而与此同时,全球LNG市场地区分割严重,北美、欧洲和亚洲定价机制存在较大差异,尤其是亚洲地区的价格显著高于成本。区域定价机制不同造成北美、欧洲及亚洲等世界三大天然气市场价格存在较大差异。天然气在三大市场竞争性替代能源存在差异,特别是历史上亚洲LNG与石油直接形成替代,加之天然气市场流动性不足,是造成三大市场价格高低差异的根本原因。北美地区价格完全由市场竞争形成,欧洲地区主要采用净回值定价,与油价挂钩,同时考虑替代能源价格和需求状况,而亚太地区的LNG进口价格与日本进口原油加权平均价格(JCC)挂钩。通过比较全球各地区LNG的价格形成机制发现,中国成为亚洲LNG定价中心的目标任重而道远。
After two months of turmoil, the international oil price plummeted again in mid-June and dropped to a nearly half-year low, with a total decrease of 23%. In addition to the oil refineries, the natural gas industry also suffered heavy losses, of which the already excessively high demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry worsened the living space to be further squeezed. In fact, with the rapid increase in shale gas production in the United States and Canada and the significant improvement in infrastructure, the supply and demand structure of the global LNG market has undergone major changes in recent years. Many agencies predict that the oversupply of LNG will last for a long time. At the same time, the global LNG market is heavily fragmented. Pricing mechanisms in North America, Europe and Asia are quite different. In particular, the price in Asia is significantly higher than the cost. Regional pricing mechanism caused by different North America, Europe and Asia, the world’s three major natural gas market prices there is a big difference. There are differences in the alternative energy sources of natural gas in the three major markets. In particular, the direct formation of alternative LNG and petroleum in Asia in history and the lack of liquidity in the natural gas market are the root causes of the differences in the prices of the three major markets. In North America, prices are entirely driven by market competition. The European region mainly uses net return pricing to link with oil prices while considering alternative energy sources and demand. LNG import prices in the Asia-Pacific region are linked to the weighted average price of Japan’s imported crude oil (JCC). By comparing the price formation mechanisms of LNG in various regions of the world, it is found that China’s goal of becoming an LNG pricing center in Asia has a long way to go.