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目的通过对河南省历年卫生技术人员数资料的分析,对河南省未来十年卫生技术人员需求量进行预测,为卫生人力资源培养与配置提供决策依据。方法从2011年河南省统计年鉴中选取1980～2010年河南省卫生技术人员数,运用ARIMA(1,2,1)模型对其进行分析与预测。结果从2011～2020年的卫生技术人员预测值来看,河南省的卫生技术人员数呈平稳的上涨趋势,到2020年需求量将增至69.9万人。结论应加大卫生技术人员的培养与引进力度,进一步合理化卫生技术人员结构,避免出现人才的结构性空缺。
Objective To forecast the demand of health technicians in Henan Province in the next ten years by analyzing the data of health technicians over the years in Henan Province and provide the basis for decision-making on the training and allocation of health human resources. Methods The number of health technicians in Henan Province from 1980 to 2010 was selected from the Statistical Yearbook of Henan Province in 2011, and the ARIMA (1,2,1) model was used to analyze and forecast the number of health technicians. Results From the forecast of health technicians from 2011 to 2020, the number of health technicians in Henan Province showed a steady upward trend, and the demand will increase to 699,000 by 2020. Conclusion The training and introduction of health technicians should be stepped up to further rationalize the structure of health technicians and avoid the structural vacancies of qualified personnel.